Model Performance

By Grade

Only priced markets (Moneyline, Run Line, Total) get a grade — it's computed from edge vs. a real book price, which model-only markets below don't have.

The letter grade reflects how decisive the model's own probability looked when the pick was made — NOT whether picks like it have actually won. The badge next to each tier is the honest answer to that: Proven means this tier's real win rate clears the 52.4% breakeven bar even under a conservative statistical read (95% Wilson lower bound) with at least 30 decided picks — Not enough data means it hasn't reached that sample size yet, and Underperforming means it has, and doesn't clear the bar.

By Market

Win rate of the side the model actually favored (higher of the two probabilities per game), not a raw count across both sides — a market with two-way projections (e.g. both teams' moneyline) would otherwise always land near 50% regardless of model quality, since exactly one side wins every settled game. Includes model-only markets (no live price), shown for transparency even without a grade attached.