EdgeLabEDGELAB

Model Performance

Every graded pick the model has made, checked against real final results — not just the ones anyone happened to bet on. Two-way markets are counted once, on the side the model actually favored.

Overall Record
3824-3518-283
Win Rate
52.1%
Picks Graded
7,625

By Grade

Only picks with a real book price get a grade — it's computed from edge vs. that price. That's most Moneyline, Run Line and Total picks, plus a large share of Team Total and First 5 picks; genuinely unpriced picks appear in the by-market table below without a grade. Same recommended-side counting as the overall record above, so these rows add up to it.

The letter grade reflects how decisive the model's own probability looked when the pick was made — NOT whether picks like it have actually won. The badge next to each tier is the honest answer to that: Proven means this tier's real win rate clears the 52.4% breakeven bar even under a conservative statistical read (95% Wilson lower bound) with at least 30 decided picks — Not enough data means it hasn't reached that sample size yet, and Underperforming means it has, and doesn't clear the bar.

S+
43.8%42-54-3Underperforming
A+
51.5%118-111-9Underperforming
A
50.6%285-278-13Underperforming
B
51.0%566-543-46Underperforming
C
55.9%1403-1107-74✓ Proven

By Market

Win rate of the side the model actually favored (higher of the two probabilities per game), not a raw count across both sides — a market with two-way projections (e.g. both teams' moneyline) would otherwise always land near 50% regardless of model quality, since exactly one side wins every settled game. Includes model-only markets (no live price), shown for transparency even without a grade attached.

Team Total
49.1%943-979-48
F5 Total
51.1%477-456-52
NRFI/YRFI
51.6%508-477
F5 Moneyline
54.5%452-377-156
Moneyline
54.4%536-449
Run Line
52.6%481-433
Total O/U
55.2%427-347-27

Previous Day

Yesterday's graded picks broken down the same way as the all-time record above: by letter grade and by market, so you can see how the most recent slate did on its own without it being buried in the full history.